Who Replaces Agriculture's Contribution to Settlement in Lagging Rural Areas? An Integrated Input-Output and Dynamic Simulation Analysis

This paper develops an integrated model for analysing regional economic development and structural change in agriculture. The input-output method allows the detailed description of a regional economy. Based on this description, regional growth pole sectors can be identified that are potential leverage points for growth oriented development strategies. Dynamic simulation tests the long term effects of such a development strategy. Model results show that external demand is the main driving force behind regional economic growth. However, development strategies for lagging rural areas have to be coupled to development strategies for regional centres. Only if the rural areas surrounding regional centres become an important asset for the development of these centres can rural areas be stabilised.rural regions, economic development, input-output, dynamic simulation, Community/Rural/Urban Development, C6, R11, R15, R23, R58,

Agriculture’s contribution to rural viability: An approach to estimate regional economic impacts of agricultural policy in Swiss case study regions

This paper develops a thorough yet easily implementable approach to measuring agriculture’s contribution to rural viability. The approach is based on input-output modelling. It adopts a number of concepts from input-output modelling such as determining the explicit geographical origin of input requirements and the geographical destination of farm household expenditures without formerly developing an input-output table. The approach is applied to four case studies in the Swiss mountain regions and tested for three scenarios. Our results clarify the role that agriculture still plays in the context of rural viability. They demonstrate that agriculture’s contribution to rural viability differs considerably between the case study regions and that future developments lead to a marked decline in this contribution. Rural development strategies have to take these specific regional characteristics and development perspectives into account. Keywords: This paper develops a thorough yet easily implementable approach to measuring agriculture’s contribution to rural viability. The approach is based on input-output modelling. It adopts a number of concepts from input-output modelling such as determining the explicit geographical origin of input requirements and the geographical destination of farm household expenditures without formerly developing an input-output table. The approach is applied to four case studies in the Swiss mountain regions and tested for three scenarios. Our results clarify the role that agriculture still plays in the context of rural viability. They demonstrate that agriculture’s contribution to rural viability differs considerably between the case study regions and that future developments lead to a marked decline in this contribution. Rural development strategies have to take these specific regional characteristics and development perspectives into account.rural viability, employment, added value, agricultural production, input requirements, farm household expenditures, agricultural and rural policy, Agricultural and Food Policy, Community/Rural/Urban Development,

Using microworlds for policymaking in the context of resilient farming systems

Resilience management of farming systems requires building an understanding of the underlying drivers of the adaptive capacity of the system. In this paper, we use the concept of resilience as a framework to understand how bovine livestock farming systems may adjust to challenging environmental, social, and political conditions. Using an interactive simulation model (microworld), we explored potential developments for livestock farmers in Bourbonnais, France, to the effect of simultaneous changes in the socioeconomic landscape and unpredictable weather conditions resulting from climate change. The results offer insights into the potential trade-offs between systems scale and long-term sustainability by suggesting that sacrificing socioeconomic performance in the short and medium term may increase long-term sustainability and resilience.publishedVersio

Closing the mineral construction material cycle – An endogenous perspective on barriers in transition

Construction and demolition waste (CDW) constitutes a highly voluminous urban waste stream with significant potential for circular mineral construction material usage. This paper uses participatory system dynamics modeling with relevant actors from different public policy and industry sectors to a) to identify structural barriers to the uptake of secondary resource utilization; b) design and test policies administrative (spatial planning, ownership), fiscal (extraction levy, disposal fee) and soft (lighthouse projects) policies and c) discuss the feasibility of implementing these with policies in the political and legislative context of Switzerland. We find practice relevant policy insights, such as the role of distributed control of land use policies resulting in a co-evolutionary lock-in to primary resources consumptions. Policy interventions need to establish new forms of collaboration between regional actors, as hinterland are specializing as resource suppliers for urban regions. Without coordinated interventions that address structural imbalances of material flow, arbitrage effects with other regions render policies ineffective. From a methodological perspective we find that simulation and participatory modeling improves the efficacy of transition interventions as we provide a structural problem analysis as a tool for Stakeholder reflexivity.publishedVersio

Food provision and environmental goals in the Swiss agri-food system: System dynamics and the social-ecological systems framework

An important challenge for the Swiss agri-food system is how to align food provision with environmental goals in the context of increasingly complex conditions. This paper describes a system dynamics model that analyses the trade-offs and synergies between these goals arising from different fields of action. The model is grounded in the social-ecological systems framework and was developed in a participatory process with stakeholders across the Swiss agri-food system. Model analysis indicates that yield improvements and the implementation of more sustainable production systems have important leverage for increasing food provision and simultaneously improving environmental performance. However, these fields of action need to be complemented by fields of action outside agriculture such as reductions in food waste and losses or changes in consumption patterns. Model analysis also shows that the feedback perspective, inherent to the system dynamics methodology, promises to yield valuable synergies with the social-ecological systems approach.acceptedVersio

Climate change adaptation processes seen through a resilience lens: Norwegian farmers’ handling of the dry summer of 2018

publishedVersio

Climate change adaptation processes seen through a resilience lens: Norwegian farmers’ handling of the dry summer of 2018

Climate change and more frequent extreme weather events are expected to significantly challenge food production and food security worldwide, underlining the need for adaptation within the agricultural sector. Although Norway, as other Nordic countries, potentially benefits from higher temperatures in terms of agricultural production, adaptation will be necessary. Employing resilience as a theoretical lens, this study investigates Norwegian farmers’ handling of the dry summer of 2018, a summer that comprehensively challenged agricultural production throughout Europe. In-depth interviews revealed that farmers’ main strategy was to improve their buffer capacity to be able to ‘bounce back’ (i.e., to get ‘through’ the summer to return to a ‘normal’ situation). Informal and formal networks, access to outfield resources and governmental support played key roles in enhancing the buffer capacity. Structural changes in the agricultural sector seem to challenge future access to the resources needed to improve the buffer capacity in times of crisis. Within the current environmental, social and political framework, farms are considered resilient, and strengthening buffer capacity is reasonable. However, a higher frequency of extreme weather events may require that other capacities, such as adaptive or transformative, be improved. Thus, resilience is not a given state and independent of values but strongly context dependent. To achieve long-term resilience, climate change adaptation needs to be politically encouraged and economically supported. Farmers need flexibility to use local resources. Worries about structural changes may draw farmers’ attention away from making potentially important adaptations to climate change.publishedVersio

Foreign Direct Investment, Spillovers and the Impact of Intellectual Property Rights in the Seed Sector

The role of foreign direct investment and intellectual property rights in economic development is discussed widely in the literature. However, an integrating framework is missing to assess the role of FDI and IPR for agricultural development. This paper establishes a framework to assess the role of FDI and IPR for seed sector development in developing countries. The impact assessment is carried out with a System Dynamics model that shows local capacity development to develop new seed varieties in the scenario of a multinational company penetrating the market and spillovers occurring. Simulation runs reveal the impact of IPR on the quantity technology transferred by multinational companies and on spillovers. The development path of the local industry depends crucially on the capacity of the local seed sector when the multinational company enters. A pattern for seed sector development is derived

Systems Education at Bergen

At the University of Bergen in Norway, educating students to use computer models and to think systemically about social and economic problems began in the 1970s. The International Masters Program in System Dynamics was established in 1995, and a Ph.D. program began a few years later. Student enrolment doubled in 2010 with the establishment of the European Master Program in System Dynamics. International diversity has been a hallmark of the Bergen program; each year, students come from about 30 different countries and more than 95% of the degrees have been awarded to students from outside of Norway. However, a Bergen systems education is not confined to a classroom in Norway. Projects in developing countries, emerging economies, and developed countries have taken the systems perspective and modeling tools on the road and, increasingly, online. Whatever the delivery mode, the goal is the same: capacity building among international students, planners and managers, and local stakeholders. This paper describes the Bergen program and its impact on systems thinking and modeling throughout the world.publishedVersio

Systems Education at Bergen

At the University of Bergen in Norway, educating students to use computer models and to think systemically about social and economic problems began in the 1970s. The International Masters Program in System Dynamics was established in 1995, and a Ph.D. program began a few years later. Student enrolment doubled in 2010 with the establishment of the European Master Program in System Dynamics. International diversity has been a hallmark of the Bergen program; each year, students come from about 30 different countries and more than 95% of the degrees have been awarded to students from outside of Norway. However, a Bergen systems education is not confined to a classroom in Norway. Projects in developing countries, emerging economies, and developed countries have taken the systems perspective and modeling tools on the road and, increasingly, online. Whatever the delivery mode, the goal is the same: capacity building among international students, planners and managers, and local stakeholders. This paper describes the Bergen program and its impact on systems thinking and modeling throughout the world